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Ilya Ivashka vs Toby Samuel — Helsinki Round of 32

HelsinkiR32HardMon 16 Nov · 11:00
Ilya IvashkaATP #223 · BLR33%
VSClear favourite · Samuel T.
Toby Samuel(3)ATP #95 · GBR67%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Samuel T.
33%67%

Clear edge for Samuel T. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Ivashka I.5.4/10
Clear underdog
Samuel T.6.8/10
Slight advantage
Why
Surface+220 Hard Elo edgeSupports Samuel T.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1745Supports Samuel T.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 806
Hard ELO1 722
Last 108–2
Age32
Height193 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $3.4M2026 $35K
ELO1 882
Hard ELO1 773
Last 105–5
Age24
Height191 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $651K2026 $536K

Ilya Ivashka faces Toby Samuel in the Helsinki round of 32 on hard. Toby Samuel is the paper favourite — ranked #95, a roughly 220-point hard Elo advantage — but Ilya Ivashka arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on hard to Toby Samuel's 5 of 10.

Key context

  • Surface form: Ilya Ivashka 8 of 10, Toby Samuel 5 of 10 on hard recently — Ilya Ivashka the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Toby Samuel carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Ivashka I.Samuel T.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate70% (35–15) (ahead)67% (42–21)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO18061882 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO17221773 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 46 vs 61 matches
1st-serve points won73% (ahead)70%
Return points won41% (ahead)40%
Aces / match4.34.5 (ahead)
ClutchLast 46 vs 61 matches
Break points saved56%65% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast5°C · Drizzle
Wind43 km/h
Humidity86%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ilya Ivashka vs Toby Samuel — Helsinki Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/ivashka-vs-samuel-helsinki-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).