UMPIRY
EN

Andrea Guerrieri vs Elias Ymer — Helsinki Round of 32

HelsinkiR32HardMon 16 Nov · 11:00
Andrea GuerrieriATP #160 · ITA68%
VSClear favourite · Guerrieri A.
Elias YmerATP #254 · SWE32%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Guerrieri A.
68%32%

Clear edge for Guerrieri A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Guerrieri A.5.4/10
Clear underdog
Ymer E.5.5/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
Surface+134 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Ymer E.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1545Informative
Recent runLost last 6Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 802
Hard ELO1 690
Last 105–5
Age27
Height180 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $191K2026 $105K
ELO1 727
Hard ELO1 602
Last 102–8
Age30
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.5M2026 $242K

Andrea Guerrieri faces Elias Ymer in the Helsinki round of 32 on hard. Andrea Guerrieri holds the paper edge — ranked #160.

Key context

  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Andrea Guerrieri has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 62 vs 12).
  • Surface form: Andrea Guerrieri 5 of 10, Elias Ymer 2 of 10 on hard recently — Andrea Guerrieri the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Guerrieri A.Ymer E.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–5 (ahead)2–8
Season win rate65% (40–22) (ahead)45% (23–28)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1802 (ahead)1727
Hard-court ELO1690 (ahead)1602
Serve vs returnLast 61 vs 46 matches
1st-serve points won67%71% (ahead)
Return points won43% (ahead)35%
Aces / match2.15.8 (ahead)
ClutchLast 61 vs 46 matches
Break points saved61%61%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast5°C · Drizzle
Wind43 km/h
Humidity86%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Andrea Guerrieri vs Elias Ymer — Helsinki Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/guerrieri-vs-ymer-helsinki-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).