Jason Kubler vs Chase Ferguson | Sydney Qualifying Round of 16

UMPIRY

SydneyQ16QualifyingHardMon 16 Nov · 10:00

Jason KublerATP #559 · AUS68%

VSClear favourite · Kubler J.

Chase FergusonATP #683 · AUS32%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Kubler J.

68%32%

Clear edge for Kubler J. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Kubler J.5.4/10

Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Ferguson C.4.9/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form7 of last 10 on hardSupports Kubler J.

Recent run2-match win streakSupports Kubler J.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Kubler J.

Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 873

Hard ELO1 739

Last 107–3

Age33

EarningsCareer $3.0M2026 $102K

ELO1 603

Hard ELO1 595

Last 104–6

Age27

EarningsCareer $35K2026 $6K

Jason Kubler faces Chase Ferguson in the Sydney qualifying round of 16 on hard. Jason Kubler holds the paper edge — ranked #559, leading the head-to-head 1–0.

Key context

Freshness: Jason Kubler comes in with 1 days of rest and 20 games in 14d, vs Chase Ferguson's 1 and 70.
Head-to-head: Jason Kubler leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at M25 Baotou 1 2025.
Surface form: Jason Kubler 6 of 9, Chase Ferguson 4 of 9 on hard recently — Jason Kubler the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Kubler J. leads 1–0

Kubler J.May 2025M25 Baotou 1Clay6-3 6-3

Evidence

Kubler J.Ferguson C.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–34–6

Season win rate83% (5–1)59% (24–17)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18731603

Hard-court ELO17391595

Serve vs returnLast 5 vs 33 matches

1st-serve points won80%68%

Return points won37%37%

Aces / match7.02.4

ClutchLast 5 vs 33 matches

Break points saved75%60%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard · medium-fast

Forecast17°C · Drizzle

Wind22 km/h

Humidity76%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Kubler J.Ferguson C.

1Days since last match1

1Matches · 7 days3

20Games · 7 days70

1Matches · 14 days3

20Games · 14 days70

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Jason Kubler vs Chase Ferguson — Sydney Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/ferguson-vs-kubler-sydney-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).