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Hiroki Moriya vs Thomas Fancutt — Sydney Qualifying Round of 16

SydneyQ16QualifyingHardMon 16 Nov · 10:00
Hiroki MoriyaATP #450 · JPN61%
VSSlight edge · Moriya H.
Thomas FancuttATP #690 · AUS39%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Moriya H.
61%39%

Moriya H. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Moriya H.5.1/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Fancutt T.5.9/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form6 of last 10 on hardSupports Moriya H.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Fancutt T.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Moriya H.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 636
Hard ELO1 595
Last 106–4
Age36
Height168 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.1M2026 $21K
ELO1 576
Hard ELO1 543
Last 104–6
Age31
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $214K2026 $31K

Hiroki Moriya faces Thomas Fancutt in the Sydney qualifying round of 16 on hard. They have met once, Thomas Fancutt leading 1–0. Hiroki Moriya brings the better recent hard form (6 of 10).

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Fancutt T. leads 1–0
01

Evidence

Moriya H.Fancutt T.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate49% (30–31)50% (13–13) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1636 (ahead)1576
Hard-court ELO1595 (ahead)1543
Serve vs returnLast 56 vs 24 matches
1st-serve points won67%72% (ahead)
Return points won40% (ahead)36%
Aces / match2.56.7 (ahead)
ClutchLast 56 vs 24 matches
Break points saved57% (ahead)55%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard · medium-fast
Forecast17°C · Drizzle
Wind22 km/h
Humidity76%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Moriya H.Fancutt T.
1 — fresherDays since last match0
4Matches · 7 days4
71 — fresherGames · 7 days98
4Matches · 14 days4
71 — fresherGames · 14 days98
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Hiroki Moriya vs Thomas Fancutt — Sydney Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/fancutt-vs-moriya-sydney-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).