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Juan Manuel La Serna vs Francisco Comesana — Montevideo Round of 32

MontevideoR32ClayMon 16 Nov · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Comesana F.
36%64%

Comesana F. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
La Serna J.6.1/10
Even match
Comesana F.6.6/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+207 Clay Elo edgeSupports Comesana F.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1695Supports Comesana F.
Recent run5-match win streakAgainst the prediction · La Serna J.
Head-to-headTrails 0–1 on clayInformative
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 708
Clay ELO1 689
Last 107–3
Age22
Height188 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $99K2026 $41K
ELO1 840
Clay ELO1 765
Last 105–5
Age26
Height178 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.5M2026 $626K

Juan Manuel La Serna faces Francisco Comesana in the Montevideo round of 32 on clay. Francisco Comesana is the paper favourite — ranked #138, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 210-point clay Elo advantage — but Juan Manuel La Serna arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on clay to Francisco Comesana's 5 of 10.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Comesana F. leads 1–0
01

Evidence

La Serna J.Comesana F.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate67% (44–22) (ahead)44% (22–28)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO17081840 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO16891765 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 62 vs 48 matches
1st-serve points won64%70% (ahead)
Return points won45% (ahead)38%
Aces / match1.66.5 (ahead)
ClutchLast 62 vs 48 matches
Break points saved58% (ahead)57%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast22°C · Overcast
Wind11 km/h
Humidity77%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
La Serna J.Comesana F.
7 — fresherDays since last match3
1 — fresherMatches · 7 days2
17 — fresherGames · 7 days55
5Matches · 14 days3 — fresher
118Games · 14 days88 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Juan Manuel La Serna vs Francisco Comesana — Montevideo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/comesana-vs-serna-montevideo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).