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Sebastian Dominko vs G. Carlini — Champaign Qualifying Round of 32

ChampaignQ32QualifyingHardMon 16 Nov · 17:15
Sebastian DominkoATP #451 · SLO77%
VSClear favourite · Dominko S.
G. CarliniITA23%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Dominko S.
77%23%

Clear edge for Dominko S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Dominko S.6.4/10
Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Carlini G.6.1/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form7 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 2Informative
CountryWon 70% in USA (33)Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 658
Hard ELO1 583
Last 106–4
Age23
ELO1 481
Hard ELO1 482
Last 105–5
Age21

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Dominko S.Carlini G.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate74% (28–10) (ahead)57% (4–3)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1658 (ahead)1481
Hard-court ELO1583 (ahead)1482
Serve vs returnLast 31 vs 4 matches
1st-serve points won79% (ahead)73%
Return points won38%38%
Aces / match9.5 (ahead)3.8
ClutchLast 31 vs 4 matches
Break points saved66% (ahead)47%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

17:15 local
SurfaceHard · medium-fast
Forecast7°C · Clear
Wind3 km/h
Humidity47%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Sebastian Dominko vs G. Carlini — Champaign Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/carlini-vs-dominko-champaign-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).