Maria Lourdes Carle vs Veronika Erjavec

UMPIRY

LP Open by IND - ColinaR32ClayMon 16 Nov · 13:00 UTC

Maria Lourdes CarleWTA #234 · ARG48%

VSToss-up

Veronika Erjavec(7)WTA #161 · SLO52%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

48%52%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Carle M.5.1/10

Clear underdog

Erjavec V.6.1/10

Even match

Why

Surface+149 Clay Elo edgeSupports Erjavec V.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1628Supports Erjavec V.

Recent runLost last 2Informative

Head-to-headTrails 1–2 on claySupports Erjavec V.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Erjavec V.

ELO1 694

Clay ELO1 678

Last 103–7

Age26

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.4M2026 $181K

ELO1 713

Clay ELO1 692

Last 102–8

Age26

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.3M2026 $584K

Maria Lourdes Carle faces Veronika Erjavec in the LP Open by IND - Colina round of 32 on clay. Veronika Erjavec is the paper favourite — ranked #161, a roughly 150-point clay Elo advantage — but Maria Lourdes Carle has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Maria Lourdes Carle 77 games in 14 days, Veronika Erjavec 27.
Under pressure: Veronika Erjavec has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 81 vs Maria Lourdes Carle's 27).
Head-to-head: Maria Lourdes Carle leads the head-to-head 2–1. Last met at Antalya 125 2 2025.

Common opponents

2 shared · last 12 months

Carle M. and Erjavec V. faced 2 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Carle M. went 0–2 (0%) against them, Erjavec V. 0–2 (0%).

0–20%Carle M. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents0–20%Erjavec V. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

1–4Sets0–4

17–29Games10–25

0–1Deciding sets0–0

Only 2 common opponents — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Kalinina A.#56L1-6 3-6Hamburg · clayL3-6 1-6Antalya 125 1 · clay
vs Sramkova R.#151L4-6 7-5 2-6Roland Garros · clayL5-7 1-6Oeiras 125 · clay

Head-to-head

3 meetings · Carle M. leads 2–1

Erjavec V.March 2025Antalya 125 2Clay1-6 7-6 6-2
Carle M.September 2023Bari 125Clay6-1 6-3
Carle M.September 2022W60 PragueClay7-6(1) 6-1

Evidence

Carle M.Erjavec V.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss3–72–8

Season win rate48% (26–28)46% (21–25)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16941713

Clay-court ELO16781692

Serve vs returnLast 52 vs 43 matches

1st-serve points won58%58%

Return points won49%45%

Aces / match0.80.9

ClutchLast 52 vs 43 matches

Break points saved52%51%

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Carle M.Erjavec V.

4Days since last match6

2Matches · 7 days1

47Games · 7 days27

3Matches · 14 days1

77Games · 14 days27

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Maria Lourdes Carle vs Veronika Erjavec — LP Open by IND - Colina Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/carle-vs-erjavec-lp-open-by-ind-colina-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).