UMPIRY
EN

Henrique Rocha vs Federico Aguilar Cardozo — Montevideo Round of 32

MontevideoR32ClayMon 16 Nov · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Rocha H.
70%30%

Clear edge for Rocha H. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Rocha H.5.9/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Aguilar Cardozo F.6.2/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form6 of last 10 on clayAgainst the prediction · Aguilar Cardozo F.
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Rocha H.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 787
Clay ELO1 685
Last 106–4
Age22
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
ELO1 603
Clay ELO1 596
Last 106–4
Age21
Height168 cm
PlaysRight

Henrique Rocha faces Federico Aguilar Cardozo in the Montevideo round of 32 on clay. Federico Aguilar Cardozo brings the better recent clay form (3 of 6).

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Rocha H.Aguilar Cardozo F.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–46–4
Season win rate58% (37–27)61% (14–9) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1787 (ahead)1603
Clay-court ELO1685 (ahead)1596
Serve vs returnLast 59 vs 21 matches
1st-serve points won68% (ahead)60%
Return points won41%46% (ahead)
Aces / match3.0 (ahead)0.9
ClutchLast 59 vs 21 matches
Break points saved59% (ahead)51%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast22°C · Overcast
Wind11 km/h
Humidity77%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Rocha H.Aguilar Cardozo F.
6Days since last match11 — fresher
1Matches · 7 days0 — fresher
20Games · 7 days0 — fresher
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
43 — fresherGames · 14 days85
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Henrique Rocha vs Federico Aguilar Cardozo — Montevideo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/cardozo-vs-rocha-montevideo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).