UMPIRY
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Gianluca Cadenasso vs Jacob Fearnley — Helsinki Round of 32

HelsinkiR32HardMon 16 Nov · 11:00
Gianluca CadenassoATP #214 · ITA20%
VSStrong favourite · Fearnley J.
Jacob Fearnley(2)ATP #87 · GBR80%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Fearnley J.
20%80%

Clear edge for Fearnley J. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Cadenasso G.5.7/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Fearnley J.6.7/10
Slight advantage
Why
Surface+182 Hard Elo edgeSupports Fearnley J.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1600Supports Fearnley J.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 720
Hard ELO1 543
Last 106–4
Age22
Height178 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $237K2026 $139K
ELO1 892
Hard ELO1 741
Last 106–4
Age25
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.0M2026 $611K

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Cadenasso G.Fearnley J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–46–4
Season win rate53% (21–19)59% (39–27) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO17201892 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15431741 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 39 vs 63 matches
1st-serve points won67%71% (ahead)
Return points won42% (ahead)40%
Aces / match2.44.8 (ahead)
ClutchLast 39 vs 63 matches
Break points saved52%57% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast5°C · Drizzle
Wind43 km/h
Humidity86%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Cadenasso G.Fearnley J.
5Days since last match7 — fresher
1Matches · 7 days1
21Games · 7 days18 — fresher
3Matches · 14 days2 — fresher
59Games · 14 days32 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Gianluca Cadenasso vs Jacob Fearnley — Helsinki Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/cadenasso-vs-fearnley-helsinki-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).