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Michele Ribecai vs Edas Butvilas — Helsinki Round of 32

HelsinkiR32HardMon 16 Nov · 11:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
48%52%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Ribecai M.5.8/10
Slight disadvantage
Butvilas E.6.1/10
Even match
Why
Surface+210 Hard Elo edgeSupports Butvilas E.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1544Supports Butvilas E.
Recent run4-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Ribecai M.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Ribecai M.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 689
Hard ELO1 602
Last 108–2
Age23
EarningsCareer $95K2026 $53K
ELO1 704
Hard ELO1 646
Last 103–7
Age22
EarningsCareer $325K2026 $103K

Michele Ribecai faces Edas Butvilas in the Helsinki round of 32 on hard. Edas Butvilas is the paper favourite — ranked #213, a roughly 210-point hard Elo advantage — but Michele Ribecai arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 5 on hard to Edas Butvilas's 1 of 5.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Ribecai M.Butvilas E.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate52% (31–29)54% (37–31) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16891704 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO16021646 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 59 vs 67 matches
1st-serve points won66%71% (ahead)
Return points won41% (ahead)38%
Aces / match1.65.4 (ahead)
ClutchLast 59 vs 67 matches
Break points saved60%62% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast5°C · Drizzle
Wind43 km/h
Humidity86%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Ribecai M.Butvilas E.
1Days since last match6 — fresher
4Matches · 7 days2 — fresher
73Games · 7 days54 — fresher
5Matches · 14 days3 — fresher
95Games · 14 days90 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Michele Ribecai vs Edas Butvilas — Helsinki Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/butvilas-vs-ribecai-helsinki-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).