Polona Hercog vs Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

UMPIRY

LP Open by IND - ColinaR32ClayMon 16 Nov · 13:00 UTC

Polona HercogWTA #200 · SLO63%

VSSlight edge · Hercog P.

Miriam Bianca BulgaruWTA #372 · ROU37%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Hercog P.

63%37%

Hercog P. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Hercog P.7.0/10

Strong advantage

Bulgaru M.4.9/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+244 Clay Elo edgeSupports Hercog P.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1590Supports Hercog P.

Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on clayBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 693

Clay ELO1 692

Last 106–4

Age35

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $4.6M2026 $48K

ELO1 600

Clay ELO1 589

Last 106–4

Age28

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $561K2026 $78K

Polona Hercog faces Miriam Bianca Bulgaru in the LP Open by IND - Colina round of 32 on clay. Polona Hercog is the paper favourite — ranked #200, a roughly 240-point clay Elo advantage — but Miriam Bianca Bulgaru arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 7 on clay to Polona Hercog's 4 of 7. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.

Key context

Freshness: Polona Hercog comes in with 2 days of rest and 95 games in 14d, vs Miriam Bianca Bulgaru's 17 and 0.
Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1. Last met at Colina 125 2023.
Surface form: Polona Hercog 4 of 7, Miriam Bianca Bulgaru 5 of 7 on clay recently — Miriam Bianca Bulgaru the sharper of late.

Common opponents

4 shared · last 12 months

Hercog P. and Bulgaru M. faced 4 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Hercog P. went 4–0 (100%) against them, Bulgaru M. 0–4 (0%). Hercog P. came out better against 4 of 4 comparable opponents, Bulgaru M. against 0 — though 4 of those edges carry caveats (lower-tier event).

4–0100%Hercog P. · better vs 4Record vs common opponents0–40%Bulgaru M. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

8–1Sets1–8

55–30Games28–55

1–0Tiebreaks1–0

1–0Deciding sets0–1

Only 4 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Korpatsch T.#62W6-2 5-7 7-5Dubrovnik 125 · clayL4-6 7-6(7) 2-6Australian Open · hard
vs Udvardy P.#87W7-6 6-1Colina 125 · clayL1-6 2-6Buenos Aires 125 · clay
vs Kalieva E.#125W6-3 6-1Quito 125 · clayL3-6 3-6Quito 125 · clay

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vs Pridankina E.#184W6-3 6-2Dubrovnik 125 · clayL5-7 1-6Iasi · clay

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1

Hercog P.November 2023Colina 125Clay6-4 4-6 6-2
Bulgaru M.September 2023W60 ViennaClay2-6 6-4 7-6(7)

Evidence

Hercog P.Bulgaru M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–46–4

Season win rate58% (33–24)34% (15–29)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16931600

Clay-court ELO16921589

Serve vs returnLast 55 vs 43 matches

1st-serve points won64%58%

Return points won46%45%

Aces / match2.11.1

ClutchLast 55 vs 43 matches

Break points saved56%46%

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Hercog P.Bulgaru M.

2Days since last match17

4Matches · 7 days0

70Games · 7 days0

6Matches · 14 days0

95Games · 14 days0

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Polona Hercog vs Miriam Bianca Bulgaru — LP Open by IND - Colina Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/bulgaru-vs-hercog-lp-open-by-ind-colina-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).