UMPIRY
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Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mika Brunold — Helsinki Round of 32

HelsinkiR32HardMon 16 Nov · 11:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
57%43%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Budkov Kjaer N.6.4/10
Marginal edge
Brunold M.5.5/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
Surface+155 Hard Elo edgeSupports Budkov Kjaer N.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1620Supports Budkov Kjaer N.
Recent runLost last 2Both players
Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 787
Hard ELO1 650
Last 105–5
Age20
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $861K2026 $407K
ELO1 743
Hard ELO1 588
Last 106–4
Age22
Height191 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $147K2026 $24K

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer faces Mika Brunold in the Helsinki round of 32 on hard. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is the paper favourite — ranked #178, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage — but Mika Brunold has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 67 vs 24).
  • Fatigue load: Both played two three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
  • Head-to-head: Mika Brunold leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at M25 Antalya 6 2024.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Brunold M. leads 1–0
01

Evidence

Budkov Kjaer N.Brunold M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–56–4 (ahead)
Season win rate50% (34–34)68% (36–17) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1787 (ahead)1743
Hard-court ELO1650 (ahead)1588
Serve vs returnLast 63 vs 50 matches
1st-serve points won69% (ahead)67%
Return points won37%40% (ahead)
Aces / match3.9 (ahead)2.8
ClutchLast 63 vs 50 matches
Break points saved59% (ahead)58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast5°C · Drizzle
Wind43 km/h
Humidity86%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Budkov Kjaer N.Brunold M.
6Days since last match8 — fresher
1Matches · 7 days0 — fresher
34Games · 7 days0 — fresher
3Matches · 14 days3
86Games · 14 days82 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mika Brunold — Helsinki Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/brunold-vs-kjaer-helsinki-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).