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Michael Vrbensky vs Vadym Ursu — Helsinki Qualifying Round of 32

HelsinkiQ32QualifyingHardSun 15 Nov · ~12:30COURT 12 · After 1 match
Michael VrbenskyATP #737 · CZE57%
VSToss-up
Vadym UrsuATP #443 · UKR43%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
57%43%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Vrbensky M.6.2/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Ursu V.5.4/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardSupports Vrbensky M.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Ursu V.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 651
Hard ELO1 561
Last 106–4
Age26
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $297K2026 $9K
ELO1 621
Hard ELO1 595
Last 102–8
Age29
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $160K2026 $20K

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Vrbensky M.Ursu V.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)2–8
Season win rate38% (11–18) (ahead)27% (8–22)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1651 (ahead)1621
Hard-court ELO15611595 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 28 vs 30 matches
1st-serve points won66% (ahead)65%
Return points won38%39% (ahead)
Aces / match4.0 (ahead)3.3
ClutchLast 28 vs 30 matches
Break points saved58%58%

When it starts

COURT 12 · After 1 match · Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT 12 · ~12:30 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast9°C · Overcast
Wind41 km/h
Humidity78%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Vrbensky M.Ursu V.
12 — fresherDays since last match7
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days1
0 — fresherGames · 7 days19
3Matches · 14 days3
71Games · 14 days55 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Michael Vrbensky vs Vadym Ursu — Helsinki Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-15/ursu-vs-vrbensky-helsinki-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 15 November 2026).