UMPIRY
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Maria Lourdes Carle vs Valentina Mediorreal Arias — Cundinamarca Open - Sopo Round of 32

Cundinamarca Open - SopoR32ClayTue 10 Nov · 10:00
Maria Lourdes CarleWTA #232 · ARG81%
VSStrong favourite · Carle M.
Valentina Mediorreal AriasCOL19%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Carle M.
81%19%

Clear edge for Carle M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Carle M.5.6/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Mediorreal Arias V.6.0/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 10 on clayInformative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Mediorreal Arias V.
Recent runLost last 2Both players
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 695
Clay ELO1 680
Last 103–7
Age26
EarningsCareer $1.4M2026 $181K
ELO1 503
Clay ELO1 500
Last 104–6
Age19
EarningsCareer $37K2026 $10K

Maria Lourdes Carle faces Valentina Mediorreal Arias in the Cundinamarca Open - Sopo round of 32 on clay. Valentina Mediorreal Arias brings the better recent clay form (3 of 6).

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Carle M.Mediorreal Arias V.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–74–6 (ahead)
Season win rate48% (25–27) (ahead)38% (5–8)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1695 (ahead)1503
Clay-court ELO1680 (ahead)1500
Serve vs returnLast 50 vs 13 matches
1st-serve points won58% (ahead)52%
Return points won49% (ahead)47%
Aces / match0.8 (ahead)0.5
ClutchLast 50 vs 13 matches
Break points saved51% (ahead)47%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast20°C · Clear
Wind15 km/h
Humidity44%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Carle M.Mediorreal Arias V.
6Days since last match6
1Matches · 7 days1
30Games · 7 days14 — fresher
3Matches · 14 days1 — fresher
72Games · 14 days14 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Maria Lourdes Carle vs Valentina Mediorreal Arias — Cundinamarca Open - Sopo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-10/arias-vs-carle-cundinamarca-open-sopo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 10 November 2026).