Kasidit Samrej vs Yuta Shimizu | Matsuyama Round of 32

UMPIRY

MatsuyamaR32HardMon 9 Nov

Kasidit SamrejATP #409 · THA29%

VSClear favourite · Shimizu Y.

Yuta ShimizuATP #405 · JPN71%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Shimizu Y.

29%71%

Clear edge for Shimizu Y. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Samrej K.6.0/10

Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Shimizu Y.6.5/10

Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form6 of last 10 on hardSupports Shimizu Y.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Shimizu Y.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Samrej K.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 543

Hard ELO1 535

Last 105–5

Age25

ELO1 716

Hard ELO1 654

Last 106–4

Age27

Kasidit Samrej faces Yuta Shimizu in the Matsuyama round of 32 on hard. Yuta Shimizu holds the paper edge — ranked #405, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Kasidit Samrej comes in with 2 days of rest and 127 games in 14d, vs Yuta Shimizu's 1 and 178.
Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Yuta Shimizu rising, Kasidit Samrej cooling.
Head-to-head: Yuta Shimizu leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Phan Thiet 3 2026.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Shimizu Y. leads 1–0

Shimizu Y.September 2026Phan Thiet 3Hard4-6 4-6

Evidence

Samrej K.Shimizu Y.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–56–4

Season win rate58% (11–8)55% (28–23)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15431716

Hard-court ELO15351654

Serve vs returnLast 19 vs 50 matches

1st-serve points won74%71%

Return points won33%37%

Aces / match6.44.6

ClutchLast 19 vs 50 matches

Break points saved69%60%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

SurfaceHard · medium

Forecast15°C · Mainly clear

Wind3 km/h

Humidity67%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Samrej K.Shimizu Y.

2Days since last match1

5Matches · 7 days6

108Games · 7 days115

6Matches · 14 days8

127Games · 14 days178

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Kasidit Samrej vs Yuta Shimizu — Matsuyama Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-09/samrej-vs-shimizu-matsuyama-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 9 November 2026).