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Miguel Tobon vs Henrique Rocha — Lima 3 Round of 32

Lima 3R32ClayMon 9 Nov · 19:30
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Rocha H.
30%70%

Clear edge for Rocha H. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Tobon M.5.4/10
Clear underdog
Rocha H.7.2/10
Strong advantage
Why
Surface+355 Clay Elo edgeSupports Rocha H.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1676Supports Rocha H.
Recent runLost last 2Against the prediction · Tobon M.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 602
Clay ELO1 560
Last 107–3
Age20
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
ELO1 793
Clay ELO1 690
Last 107–3
Age22
Height180 cm
PlaysRight

Miguel Tobon faces Henrique Rocha in the Lima 3 round of 32 on clay. Henrique Rocha is the paper favourite — ranked #99, a roughly 360-point clay Elo advantage — but Miguel Tobon arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 5 on clay to Henrique Rocha's 2 of 5.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Tobon M.Rocha H.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–37–3
Season win rate56% (29–23)59% (37–26) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16021793 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO15601690 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 51 vs 58 matches
1st-serve points won70% (ahead)69%
Return points won39%41% (ahead)
Aces / match4.5 (ahead)3.0
ClutchLast 51 vs 58 matches
Break points saved59%59%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

19:30 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast17°C · Clear
Wind22 km/h
Humidity80%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Tobon M.Rocha H.
7 — fresherDays since last match6
1Matches · 7 days1
13 — fresherGames · 7 days23
4Matches · 14 days1 — fresher
65Games · 14 days23 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Miguel Tobon vs Henrique Rocha — Lima 3 Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-09/rocha-vs-tobon-lima-3-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 9 November 2026).