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Shunsuke Nakagawa vs David Jorda Sanchis — Matsuyama Round of 32

MatsuyamaR32HardMon 9 Nov
Shunsuke NakagawaJPN44%
VSToss-up
David Jorda Sanchis(6)ATP #199 · ESP56%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
44%56%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Nakagawa S.5.4/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Jorda Sanchis D.5.5/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 10 on hardAgainst the prediction · Nakagawa S.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 574
Hard ELO1 565
Last 104–6
Age26
Height173 cm
PlaysRight
ELO1 690
Hard ELO1 537
Last 104–6
Age32
Height198 cm
PlaysRight

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Nakagawa S.Jorda Sanchis D.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–64–6
Season win rate40% (4–6)51% (31–30) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15741690 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO1565 (ahead)1537
Serve vs returnLast 10 vs 55 matches
1st-serve points won64%72% (ahead)
Return points won37%38% (ahead)
Aces / match3.04.8 (ahead)
ClutchLast 10 vs 55 matches
Break points saved55%63% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

SurfaceHard · medium
Forecast15°C · Mainly clear
Wind3 km/h
Humidity67%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Shunsuke Nakagawa vs David Jorda Sanchis — Matsuyama Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-09/nakagawa-vs-sanchis-matsuyama-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 9 November 2026).