Rio Noguchi vs Daniel Michalski | Matsuyama Round of 32

UMPIRY

MatsuyamaR32HardMon 9 Nov

Rio Noguchi(8)ATP #219 · JPN32%

VSClear favourite · Michalski D.

Daniel MichalskiATP #305 · POL68%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Michalski D.

32%68%

Clear edge for Michalski D. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Noguchi R.5.9/10

Even match

Michalski D.5.4/10

Clear underdog

Why

Surface+86 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Noguchi R.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1532Against the prediction · Noguchi R.

Recent runLost last 4Both players

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 678

Hard ELO1 638

Last 104–6

Age27

Height168 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $555K2026 $113K

ELO1 740

Hard ELO1 558

Last 108–2

Age26

Height180 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $283K2026 $35K

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Noguchi R.Michalski D.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–68–2

Season win rate58% (32–23)60% (38–25)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16781740

Hard-court ELO16381558

Serve vs returnLast 54 vs 57 matches

1st-serve points won65%67%

Return points won42%44%

Aces / match1.21.9

ClutchLast 54 vs 57 matches

Break points saved57%55%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

SurfaceHard · medium

Forecast15°C · Mainly clear

Wind3 km/h

Humidity67%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Noguchi R.Michalski D.

12Days since last match6

0Matches · 7 days1

0Games · 7 days19

1Matches · 14 days1

16Games · 14 days19

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Rio Noguchi vs Daniel Michalski — Matsuyama Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-09/michalski-vs-noguchi-matsuyama-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 9 November 2026).