UMPIRY
EN

Joel Schwaerzler vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong — Matsuyama Round of 32

MatsuyamaR32HardMon 9 Nov
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Schwaerzler J.
58%42%

Schwaerzler J. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Schwaerzler J.6.8/10
Slight advantage
Kang Leong M.4.5/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+346 Hard Elo edgeSupports Schwaerzler J.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1577Supports Schwaerzler J.
Recent runLost last 4Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Kang Leong M.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 702
Hard ELO1 556
Last 104–6
Age20
Height188 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $367K2026 $166K
ELO1 603
Hard ELO1 584
Last 104–6
Age22
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $66K2026 $18K

Joel Schwaerzler faces Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong in the Matsuyama round of 32 on hard. Joel Schwaerzler holds the paper edge — ranked #172, a roughly 350-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Schwaerzler J.Kang Leong M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–64–6
Season win rate54% (35–30)58% (25–18) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1702 (ahead)1603
Hard-court ELO15561584 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 64 vs 43 matches
1st-serve points won72% (ahead)71%
Return points won35%40% (ahead)
Aces / match6.0 (ahead)5.5
ClutchLast 64 vs 43 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

SurfaceHard · medium
Forecast15°C · Mainly clear
Wind3 km/h
Humidity67%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Schwaerzler J.Kang Leong M.
6 — fresherDays since last match5
1 — fresherMatches · 7 days3
34 — fresherGames · 7 days56
1 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
34 — fresherGames · 14 days78
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Joel Schwaerzler vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong — Matsuyama Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-09/leong-vs-schwaerzler-matsuyama-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 9 November 2026).