UMPIRY
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August Holmgren vs Philip Sekulic — Brisbane 3 Round of 32

Brisbane 3R32HardMon 9 Nov
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Sekulic P.
42%58%

Sekulic P. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Holmgren A.6.1/10
Even match
Sekulic P.4.9/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+153 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Holmgren A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1566Against the prediction · Holmgren A.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 733
Hard ELO1 609
Last 103–7
Age28
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $700K2026 $183K
ELO1 669
Hard ELO1 632
Last 108–2
Age23
Height191 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $305K2026 $58K

August Holmgren faces Philip Sekulic in the Brisbane 3 round of 32 on hard. August Holmgren is the paper favourite — ranked #267, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage — but Philip Sekulic arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on hard to August Holmgren's 3 of 10.

Key context

  • Surface form: August Holmgren 3 of 10, Philip Sekulic 8 of 10 on hard recently — Philip Sekulic the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Philip Sekulic carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Holmgren A.Sekulic P.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–78–2 (ahead)
Season win rate47% (30–34)55% (29–24) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1733 (ahead)1669
Hard-court ELO16091632 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 62 vs 50 matches
1st-serve points won74% (ahead)73%
Return points won35%38% (ahead)
Aces / match7.4 (ahead)4.4
ClutchLast 62 vs 50 matches
Break points saved63% (ahead)57%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast22°C · Clear
Wind4 km/h
Humidity49%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Cite this

Umpiry, "August Holmgren vs Philip Sekulic — Brisbane 3 Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-09/holmgren-vs-sekulic-brisbane-3-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 9 November 2026).