UMPIRY
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Alexis Galarneau vs Stefan Kozlov — Knoxville Round of 32

KnoxvilleR32HardMon 9 Nov · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
57%43%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Galarneau A.5.8/10
Slight disadvantage
Kozlov S.5.3/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+140 Hard Elo edgeSupports Galarneau A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1593Supports Galarneau A.
Recent run5-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Kozlov S.
Head-to-headLeads 2–1 on hardAgainst the prediction · Kozlov S.
CountryWon 65% in USA (89)Supports Galarneau A.
ELO1 755
Hard ELO1 653
Last 103–7
Age27
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $944K2026 $251K
ELO1 712
Hard ELO1 631
Last 107–3
Age28
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.1M2026 $50K

Alexis Galarneau faces Stefan Kozlov in the Knoxville round of 32 on hard. Alexis Galarneau is the paper favourite — ranked #195, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage — but Stefan Kozlov has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings. Stefan Kozlov brings the better recent hard form (7 of 10).

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

3 meetings · Kozlov S. leads 2–1
12

Evidence

Galarneau A.Kozlov S.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–77–3 (ahead)
Season win rate55% (37–30) (ahead)53% (28–25)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1755 (ahead)1712
Hard-court ELO1653 (ahead)1631
Serve vs returnLast 64 vs 52 matches
1st-serve points won69% (ahead)67%
Return points won38%41% (ahead)
Aces / match3.6 (ahead)2.5
ClutchLast 64 vs 52 matches
Break points saved58% (ahead)55%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast12°C · Clear
Wind1 km/h
Humidity63%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Galarneau A.Kozlov S.
5 — fresherDays since last match1
1 — fresherMatches · 7 days4
22 — fresherGames · 7 days74
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days6
41 — fresherGames · 14 days118
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alexis Galarneau vs Stefan Kozlov — Knoxville Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-09/galarneau-vs-kozlov-knoxville-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 9 November 2026).