Alexandre Reco vs Lorenzo Carboni

UMPIRY

Hersonissos 3Q16QualifyingHardMon 9 Nov · 11:30

Alexandre RecoATP #811 · FRA39%

VSSlight edge · Carboni L.

Lorenzo CarboniATP #552 · ITA61%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Carboni L.

39%61%

Carboni L. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Reco A.5.0/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Carboni L.4.7/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form6 of last 10 on hardAgainst the prediction · Reco A.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Reco A.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 553

Hard ELO1 539

Last 104–6

Age27

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $38K2026 $7K

ELO1 639

Hard ELO1 593

Last 106–4

Age20

Height168 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $98K2026 $24K

Alexandre Reco faces Lorenzo Carboni in the Hersonissos 3 qualifying round of 16 on hard. Lorenzo Carboni holds the paper edge — ranked #552.

Key context

Last match: Lorenzo Carboni dropped the opening set before beating Leo Raquillet 5–7 6–1 6–3.
Last match: Alexandre Reco edged Gabi Adrian Boitan in two tight sets (6–4 7–5).
Fatigue load: Lorenzo Carboni carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Reco A.Carboni L.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–66–4

Season win rate46% (12–14)45% (25–30)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15531639

Hard-court ELO15391593

Serve vs returnLast 23 vs 51 matches

1st-serve points won67%62%

Return points won42%41%

Aces / match2.51.6

ClutchLast 23 vs 51 matches

Break points saved56%51%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:30 local

SurfaceHard · slow

Forecast16°C · Mainly clear

Wind7 km/h

Humidity67%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alexandre Reco vs Lorenzo Carboni — Hersonissos 3 Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-09/carboni-vs-reco-hersonissos-3-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 9 November 2026).