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Alastair Gray vs Darwin Blanch — Knoxville Round of 32

KnoxvilleR32HardMon 9 Nov · 10:00
Alastair GrayATP #270 · GBR37%
VSSlight edge · Blanch D.
Darwin Blanch(5)ATP #139 · USA63%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Blanch D.
37%63%

Blanch D. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Gray A.5.0/10
Heavy underdog
Blanch D.6.8/10
Slight advantage
Why
Surface+113 Hard Elo edgeSupports Blanch D.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1551Supports Blanch D.
CountryWon 63% in USA (51)Supports Blanch D.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Gray A.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 718
Hard ELO1 677
Last 107–3
Age28
Height193 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $331K2026 $38K
ELO1 736
Hard ELO1 645
Last 107–3
Age19
Height185 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $473K2026 $228K

Alastair Gray faces Darwin Blanch in the Knoxville round of 32 on hard. Darwin Blanch holds the paper edge — ranked #139, a roughly 110-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Freshness: Alastair Gray comes in with 3 days of rest and 33 games in 14d, vs Darwin Blanch's 4 and 134.
  • Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Darwin Blanch rising, Alastair Gray cooling.
  • Surface form: Both 7 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Gray A.Blanch D.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–37–3
Season win rate55% (30–25) (ahead)54% (36–31)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO17181736 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO1677 (ahead)1645
Serve vs returnLast 53 vs 62 matches
1st-serve points won72%74% (ahead)
Return points won38% (ahead)37%
Aces / match6.26.5 (ahead)
ClutchLast 53 vs 62 matches
Break points saved65% (ahead)63%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast12°C · Clear
Wind1 km/h
Humidity63%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Gray A.Blanch D.
3Days since last match4 — fresher
2Matches · 7 days2
33 — fresherGames · 7 days40
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days6
33 — fresherGames · 14 days134
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alastair Gray vs Darwin Blanch — Knoxville Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-09/blanch-vs-gray-knoxville-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 9 November 2026).