Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly

UMPIRY

Hersonissos 3R32HardMon 9 Nov · 10:00

Carlo Alberto CaniatoATP #306 · ITA55%

VSToss-up

Gilles Arnaud BaillyATP #484 · BEL45%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

55%45%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Caniato C.5.6/10

Slight disadvantage

Bailly G.4.5/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+229 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Bailly G.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1476Against the prediction · Bailly G.

Recent runLost last 3Informative

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Caniato C.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative

ELO1 691

Hard ELO1 528

Last 106–4

Age21

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $103K2026 $21K

ELO1 693

Hard ELO1 625

Last 106–4

Age21

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $256K2026 $137K

Carlo Alberto Caniato faces Gilles Arnaud Bailly in the Hersonissos 3 round of 32 on hard. Carlo Alberto Caniato is the paper favourite — ranked #306, leading the head-to-head 1–0 — but Gilles Arnaud Bailly arrives in form, winning all 4 of their last hard matches to Carlo Alberto Caniato's 3 of 4.

Key context

Fatigue load: Gilles Arnaud Bailly carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Head-to-head: Carlo Alberto Caniato leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M25 Sintra 2 2025.
Surface form: Carlo Alberto Caniato 3 of 4, Gilles Arnaud Bailly 4 of 4 on hard recently — Gilles Arnaud Bailly the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Caniato C. leads 1–0

Caniato C.November 2025M25 Sintra 2Hard7-5 6-2

Evidence

Caniato C.Bailly G.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–46–4

Season win rate60% (31–21)46% (21–25)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16911693

Hard-court ELO15281625

Serve vs returnLast 50 vs 42 matches

1st-serve points won75%63%

Return points won38%40%

Aces / match4.61.1

ClutchLast 50 vs 42 matches

Break points saved62%54%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard · slow

Forecast15°C · Partly cloudy

Wind6 km/h

Humidity69%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly — Hersonissos 3 Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-09/bailly-vs-caniato-hersonissos-3-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 9 November 2026).