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Matias Soto vs Frazier Rengifo — M25 Guadalajara Round of 32

M25 GuadalajaraR32ClayTue 3 Nov · 21:00
Matias Soto(1)ATP #260 · CHI83%
VSStrong favourite · Soto M.
Frazier RengifoCOL17%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Soto M.
83%17%

Clear edge for Soto M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Soto M.5.4/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Rengifo F.5.3/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form3 of last 10 on clayBoth players
Head-to-headFirst meeting on clayBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
Surface switchHard → ClayBoth players
ELO1 673
Clay ELO1 650
Last 104–6
Age27
Height170 cm
PlaysRight
ELO1 527
Clay ELO1 506
Last 106–4
Age27
Height183 cm
PlaysRight

Matias Soto faces Frazier Rengifo in the M25 Guadalajara round of 32 on clay. Frazier Rengifo holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Freshness: Workload contrast: Matias Soto 47 games in 14 days, Frazier Rengifo 0.
  • Head-to-head: Frazier Rengifo leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on clay. Last met at M15 Mazatlan 2026.
  • Surface form: Both 1 of 5 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Rengifo F. leads 1–0
01

Evidence

Soto M.Rengifo F.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–66–4 (ahead)
Season win rate58% (30–22) (ahead)46% (6–7)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1673 (ahead)1527
Clay-court ELO1650 (ahead)1506
Serve vs returnLast 48 vs 10 matches
1st-serve points won70% (ahead)69%
Return points won40%45% (ahead)
Aces / match4.5 (ahead)0.8
ClutchLast 48 vs 10 matches
Break points saved60% (ahead)47%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

21:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast5°C · Clear
Wind10 km/h
Humidity67%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Soto M.Rengifo F.
12Days since last match15 — fresher
0Matches · 7 days0
0Games · 7 days0
2Matches · 14 days0 — fresher
47Games · 14 days0 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Matias Soto vs Frazier Rengifo — M25 Guadalajara Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-03/rengifo-vs-soto-m25-guadalajara-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 3 November 2026).