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Brandon Perez vs Matteo Covato — M25 Guadalajara Round of 32

M25 GuadalajaraR32ClayTue 3 Nov · 21:00
Brandon PerezVEN32%
VSClear favourite · Covato M.
Matteo Covato(5)ATP #708 · ITA68%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Covato M.
32%68%

Clear edge for Covato M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Perez B.3.5/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Covato M.4.7/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form1 of last 10 on claySupports Covato M.
Recent runLost last 12Informative
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on clayAgainst the prediction · Perez B.
Surface switchHard → ClayAgainst the prediction · Perez B.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 429
Clay ELO1 482
Last 102–8
Age26
ELO1 450
Clay ELO1 484
Last 106–4
Age21

Brandon Perez faces Matteo Covato in the M25 Guadalajara round of 32 on clay. Brandon Perez is the paper favourite — leading the head-to-head 1–0 — but Matteo Covato arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 6 on clay to Brandon Perez's 2 of 6.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Perez B. leads 1–0
10

Evidence

Perez B.Covato M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss2–86–4 (ahead)
Season win rate22% (2–7)26% (9–26) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO14291450 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO14821484 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 7 vs 31 matches
1st-serve points won64%66% (ahead)
Return points won28%33% (ahead)
Aces / match4.36.3 (ahead)
ClutchLast 7 vs 31 matches
Break points saved54%58% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

21:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast5°C · Clear
Wind10 km/h
Humidity67%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Brandon Perez vs Matteo Covato — M25 Guadalajara Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-03/covato-vs-perez-m25-guadalajara-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 3 November 2026).