UMPIRY
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Patricio Alvarado vs Lorenzo Claverie — M25 Guadalajara Round of 32

M25 GuadalajaraR32ClayTue 3 Nov · 22:00
Patricio AlvaradoECU29%
VSClear favourite · Claverie L.
Lorenzo Claverie(8)ATP #819 · VEN71%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Claverie L.
29%71%

Clear edge for Claverie L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Alvarado P.3.1/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Claverie L.5.9/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form0 of last 10 on clayInformative
Recent runLost last 15Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 495
Clay ELO1 463
Last 104–6
Age37
ELO1 546
Clay ELO1 538
Last 103–7
Age24

Patricio Alvarado faces Lorenzo Claverie in the M25 Guadalajara round of 32 on clay. Lorenzo Claverie brings the better recent clay form (2 of 4).

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Alvarado P.Claverie L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–6 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate27% (4–11)38% (5–8) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO14951546 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO14631538 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 10 vs 13 matches
1st-serve points won60%74% (ahead)
Return points won35% (ahead)33%
Aces / match1.06.8 (ahead)
ClutchLast 10 vs 13 matches
Break points saved47%58% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

22:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast4°C · Clear
Wind9 km/h
Humidity71%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Patricio Alvarado vs Lorenzo Claverie — M25 Guadalajara Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-03/alvarado-vs-claverie-m25-guadalajara-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 3 November 2026).