Rodrigo Alujas vs Alan Sau Franco | M25 Guadalajara Round of 32

UMPIRY

M25 GuadalajaraR32ClayTue 3 Nov · 22:30

Rodrigo Alujas(6)ATP #782 · MEX68%

VSClear favourite · Alujas R.

Alan Sau FrancoMEX32%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Alujas R.

68%32%

Clear edge for Alujas R. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Alujas R.5.0/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Sau Franco A.4.7/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form3 of last 10 on clayInformative

Recent runLost last 3Informative

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on claySupports Alujas R.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

Surface switchHard → ClayBoth players

ELO1 540

Clay ELO1 518

Last 105–5

Age24

ELO1 489

Clay ELO1 484

Last 104–6

Age25

Rodrigo Alujas faces Alan Sau Franco in the M25 Guadalajara round of 32 on clay. Rodrigo Alujas is the paper favourite — leading the head-to-head 1–0 — but Alan Sau Franco arrives in form, winning 2 of their last 4 on clay to Rodrigo Alujas's 1 of 4.

Key context

Form trend: Rodrigo Alujas's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Alan Sau Franco's has cooled.
Head-to-head: Rodrigo Alujas leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M25 Guadalajara 1 2025.
Surface form: Rodrigo Alujas 1 of 4, Alan Sau Franco 2 of 4 on clay recently — Alan Sau Franco the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Alujas R. leads 1–0

Alujas R.November 2025M25 Guadalajara 1Clay6-4 7-6(2)

Evidence

Alujas R.Sau Franco A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–54–6

Season win rate43% (12–16)31% (4–9)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15401489

Clay-court ELO15181484

Serve vs returnLast 22 vs 8 matches

1st-serve points won63%59%

Return points won41%38%

Aces / match1.22.3

ClutchLast 22 vs 8 matches

Break points saved50%54%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

22:30 local

SurfaceClay

Forecast4°C · Clear

Wind9 km/h

Humidity71%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Rodrigo Alujas vs Alan Sau Franco — M25 Guadalajara Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-03/alujas-vs-franco-m25-guadalajara-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 3 November 2026).