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Rafael De Alba vs Nicolas Esteban Rico Arias — M25 Guadalajara Round of 32

M25 GuadalajaraR32ClayTue 3 Nov · 19:30
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
53%47%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
De Alba R.4.8/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Rico Arias N.5.7/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form2 of last 7 on clayInformative
Recent runLost last 7Informative
Surface switchHard → ClayAgainst the prediction · Rico Arias N.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 471
Clay ELO1 478
Last 104–6
Age24
ELO1 479
Clay ELO1 473
Last 102–8
Age25

Rafael De Alba faces Nicolas Esteban Rico Arias in the M25 Guadalajara round of 32 on clay. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Rafael De Alba carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 1 of 4 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

De Alba R.Rico Arias N.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–6 (ahead)2–8
Season win rate27% (6–16) (ahead)17% (1–5)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO14711479 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO1478 (ahead)1473
Serve vs returnLast 16 vs 5 matches
1st-serve points won63%64% (ahead)
Return points won36%40% (ahead)
Aces / match2.1 (ahead)0.8
ClutchLast 16 vs 5 matches
Break points saved52%53% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

19:30 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast7°C · Clear
Wind10 km/h
Humidity48%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Rafael De Alba vs Nicolas Esteban Rico Arias — M25 Guadalajara Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-03/alba-vs-arias-m25-guadalajara-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 3 November 2026).