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Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana — Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong Round of 32

Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong KongR32HardMon 2 Nov · 10:00
VSStrong favourite · Stoiana M.
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Stoiana M.
14%86%

Clear edge for Stoiana M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 7 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Williams V.4.8/10
Heavy underdog
Stoiana M.6.4/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+50 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Williams V.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1654Informative
Recent runLost last 16Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Williams V.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 637
Hard ELO1 569
Last 100–10
Age46
EarningsCareer $43.4M2026 $485K
ELO1 802
Hard ELO1 699
Last 107–3
Age23
EarningsCareer $421K2026 $260K

Venus Williams faces Mary Stoiana in the Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong round of 32 on hard. Mary Stoiana holds the paper edge — ranked #113.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Williams V.Stoiana M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss0–107–3 (ahead)
Season win rate0% (0–13)63% (44–26) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16371802 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15691699 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 12 vs 67 matches
1st-serve points won64% (ahead)62%
Return points won37%45% (ahead)
Aces / match3.3 (ahead)1.5
ClutchLast 12 vs 67 matches
Break points saved55%55%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast28°C · Drizzle
Wind10 km/h
Humidity67%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Williams V.Stoiana M.
5Days since last match9 — fresher
1Matches · 7 days0 — fresher
16Games · 7 days0 — fresher
1 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
16 — fresherGames · 14 days79
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana — Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/stoiana-vs-williams-hong-kong-tennis-open-hong-kong-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).