UMPIRY
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Colton Smith vs Braden Shick — Charlottesville Round of 32

CharlottesvilleR32HardMon 2 Nov · 10:00
Colton SmithATP #218 · USA66%
VSSlight edge · Smith C.
Braden ShickATP #205 · USA34%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Smith C.
66%34%

Smith C. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Smith C.6.4/10
Marginal edge
Shick B.4.9/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+208 Hard Elo edgeSupports Smith C.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1577Supports Smith C.
CountryWon 66% in USA (91)Supports Smith C.
Recent runLost last 3Both players
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 750
Hard ELO1 640
Last 104–6
Age23
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $556K2026 $230K
ELO1 640
Hard ELO1 603
Last 103–7
Age23
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $82K2026 $52K

Colton Smith faces Braden Shick in the Charlottesville round of 32 on hard. Braden Shick holds the paper edge — ranked #205. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Surface form: Colton Smith 4 of 10, Braden Shick 3 of 10 on hard recently — Colton Smith the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Smith C.Shick B.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–6 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate50% (25–25)56% (22–17) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1750 (ahead)1640
Hard-court ELO1640 (ahead)1603
Serve vs returnLast 42 vs 32 matches
1st-serve points won68%68%
Return points won39% (ahead)38%
Aces / match4.5 (ahead)4.4
ClutchLast 42 vs 32 matches
Break points saved63% (ahead)58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast15°C · Overcast
Wind6 km/h
Humidity53%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Smith C.Shick B.
5Days since last match5
1Matches · 7 days1
21Games · 7 days18 — fresher
2Matches · 14 days2
52Games · 14 days42 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Colton Smith vs Braden Shick — Charlottesville Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/shick-vs-smith-charlottesville-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).