Shintaro Mochizuki vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

UMPIRY

Bratislava 2R32HardMon 2 Nov · 11:00

Shintaro Mochizuki(8)ATP #129 · JPN46%

VSToss-up

Nicolai Budkov KjaerATP #180 · NOR54%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

46%54%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Mochizuki S.5.5/10

Slight disadvantage

Budkov Kjaer N.6.7/10

Slight advantage

Why

Surface+173 Hard Elo edgeSupports Budkov Kjaer N.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1620Supports Budkov Kjaer N.

Recent runLost last 2Informative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 830

Hard ELO1 658

Last 105–5

Age23

Height175 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $2.1M2026 $675K

ELO1 792

Hard ELO1 654

Last 106–4

Age20

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $861K2026 $407K

Shintaro Mochizuki faces Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the Bratislava 2 round of 32 on hard. Shintaro Mochizuki is the paper favourite — ranked #129 — but Nicolai Budkov Kjaer arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 8 on hard to Shintaro Mochizuki's 4 of 8.

Key context

Freshness: Shintaro Mochizuki comes in with 6 days of rest and 25 games in 14d, vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer's 4 and 92.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 67 vs 26).
Surface form: Shintaro Mochizuki 4 of 8, Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 5 of 8 on hard recently — Nicolai Budkov Kjaer the sharper of late.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Mochizuki S. and Budkov Kjaer N. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Mochizuki S. went 0–1 (0%) against them, Budkov Kjaer N. 0–1 (0%).

0–10%Mochizuki S. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents0–10%Budkov Kjaer N. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

0–2Sets1–2

4–12Games16–19

0–0Deciding sets0–1

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Fearnley J.#86L3-6 1-6Rome Masters · clayL6-3 3-6 7-10NOR vs GBR · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Mochizuki S.Budkov Kjaer N.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–56–4

Season win rate42% (25–34)51% (33–32)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18301792

Hard-court ELO16581654

Serve vs returnLast 48 vs 60 matches

1st-serve points won69%68%

Return points won39%38%

Aces / match3.23.9

ClutchLast 48 vs 60 matches

Break points saved58%59%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast9°C · Rain

Wind23 km/h

Humidity93%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Mochizuki S.Budkov Kjaer N.

6Days since last match4

1Matches · 7 days2

25Games · 7 days50

1Matches · 14 days4

25Games · 14 days92

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Shintaro Mochizuki vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — Bratislava 2 Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/kjaer-vs-mochizuki-bratislava-2-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).