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Daniel Michalski vs August Holmgren — Taipei Round of 32

TaipeiR32HardMon 2 Nov · 14:00CENTER COURT · After 1 match
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
54%46%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Michalski D.5.0/10
Heavy underdog
Holmgren A.5.7/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
Surface+91 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Holmgren A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1566Against the prediction · Holmgren A.
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Surface switchClay → HardAgainst the prediction · Holmgren A.
Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players
ELO1 744
Hard ELO1 561
Last 109–1
Age26
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $283K2026 $35K
ELO1 733
Hard ELO1 609
Last 102–8
Age28
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $700K2026 $183K

Daniel Michalski faces August Holmgren in the Taipei round of 32 on hard. August Holmgren is the paper favourite — ranked #271, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage — but Daniel Michalski has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Michalski D. leads 1–0
10

Evidence

Michalski D.Holmgren A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss9–1 (ahead)2–8
Season win rate61% (38–24) (ahead)47% (29–33)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1744 (ahead)1733
Hard-court ELO15611609 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 56 vs 60 matches
1st-serve points won67%74% (ahead)
Return points won44% (ahead)35%
Aces / match1.97.2 (ahead)
ClutchLast 56 vs 60 matches
Break points saved55%63% (ahead)

When it starts

CENTER COURT · After 1 match · Not before 14:00

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · 14:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast26°C · Drizzle
Wind13 km/h
Humidity76%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Daniel Michalski vs August Holmgren — Taipei Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/holmgren-vs-michalski-taipei-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).