Francesco Maestrelli vs Francesco Forti

UMPIRY

TarantoR32HardMon 2 Nov · 10:00

Francesco Maestrelli(1)ATP #174 · ITA56%

VSToss-up

Francesco FortiATP #323 · ITA44%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

56%44%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Maestrelli F.6.5/10

Marginal edge

Forti F.5.1/10

Clear underdog

Why

Surface+227 Hard Elo edgeSupports Maestrelli F.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1538Supports Maestrelli F.

Head-to-headTrails 0–2 on hardInformative

Surface switchClay → HardSupports Maestrelli F.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Maestrelli F.

ELO1 707

Hard ELO1 649

Last 104–6

Age23

Height196 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $921K2026 $338K

ELO1 696

Hard ELO1 573

Last 105–5

Age27

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $226K2026 $30K

Francesco Maestrelli faces Francesco Forti in the Taranto round of 32 on hard. Francesco Maestrelli is the paper favourite — ranked #174, a roughly 230-point hard Elo advantage — but Francesco Forti has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Francesco Maestrelli 87 games in 14 days, Francesco Forti 61.
Under pressure: Francesco Maestrelli has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 56 vs Francesco Forti's 31).
Head-to-head: Francesco Forti leads the head-to-head 2–1, 0–2 on hard. Last met at Cordenons CH 2023.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

3 meetings · Forti F. leads 2–1

Clay: Maestrelli F. leads 1–0 · Hard: Forti F. leads 2–0

Maestrelli F.August 2023Cordenons CHClay6-2 6-4
Forti F.November 2021Bari CHHard6-4 4-6 6-3
Forti F.February 2021M15 Nur-Sultan 2Hard6-1 6-4

Evidence

Maestrelli F.Forti F.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–65–5

Season win rate41% (20–29)60% (32–21)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17071696

Hard-court ELO16491573

Serve vs returnLast 43 vs 50 matches

1st-serve points won71%70%

Return points won36%40%

Aces / match6.74.8

ClutchLast 43 vs 50 matches

Break points saved65%59%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast17°C · Showers

Wind24 km/h

Humidity81%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Maestrelli F.Forti F.

2Days since last match9

3Matches · 7 days0

55Games · 7 days0

4Matches · 14 days3

87Games · 14 days61

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Francesco Maestrelli vs Francesco Forti — Taranto Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/forti-vs-maestrelli-taranto-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).