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Liam Draxl vs Maks Kasnikowski — Charlottesville Round of 32

CharlottesvilleR32HardMon 2 Nov · 10:00
Liam Draxl(8)ATP #194 · CAN55%
VSToss-up
Maks KasnikowskiATP #213 · POL45%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
55%45%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Draxl L.7.5/10
Dominant favourite
Kasnikowski M.5.7/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
Surface+196 Hard Elo edgeSupports Draxl L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1592Supports Draxl L.
Recent run4-match win streakSupports Draxl L.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Kasnikowski M.
CountryWon 67% in USA (115)Informative
ELO1 795
Hard ELO1 712
Last 109–1
Age24
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $718K2026 $267K
ELO1 753
Hard ELO1 660
Last 106–4
Age23
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $384K2026 $53K

Liam Draxl faces Maks Kasnikowski in the Charlottesville round of 32 on hard. Liam Draxl is the paper favourite — ranked #194, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage — but Maks Kasnikowski has won their only previous meeting.

Key context

  • Freshness: Liam Draxl comes in with 1 days of rest and 95 games in 14d, vs Maks Kasnikowski's 4 and 48.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Liam Draxl has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 66 vs 14).
  • Surface form: Liam Draxl 9 of 10, Maks Kasnikowski 6 of 10 on hard recently — Liam Draxl the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Kasnikowski M. leads 1–0
01

Evidence

Draxl L.Kasnikowski M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss9–1 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate64% (43–24) (ahead)62% (39–24)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1795 (ahead)1753
Hard-court ELO1712 (ahead)1660
Serve vs returnLast 59 vs 60 matches
1st-serve points won69%73% (ahead)
Return points won40%40%
Aces / match4.9 (ahead)4.0
ClutchLast 59 vs 60 matches
Break points saved57% (ahead)54%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast15°C · Overcast
Wind6 km/h
Humidity53%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Draxl L.Kasnikowski M.
1Days since last match4 — fresher
4Matches · 7 days2 — fresher
95Games · 7 days48 — fresher
4Matches · 14 days2 — fresher
95Games · 14 days48 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Liam Draxl vs Maks Kasnikowski — Charlottesville Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/draxl-vs-kasnikowski-charlottesville-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).