UMPIRY
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Nicolas Mejia vs Murphy Cassone — Charlottesville Round of 32

CharlottesvilleR32HardMon 2 Nov · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
51%49%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Mejia N.5.8/10
Slight disadvantage
Cassone M.5.9/10
Even match
Why
Surface+31 Hard Elo edgeSupports Mejia N.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1477Supports Mejia N.
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardAgainst the prediction · Cassone M.
Surface switchClay → HardAgainst the prediction · Cassone M.
ELO1 803
Hard ELO1 629
Last 104–6
Age26
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $776K2026 $391K
ELO1 710
Hard ELO1 652
Last 106–4
Age24
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $355K2026 $112K

Nicolas Mejia faces Murphy Cassone in the Charlottesville round of 32 on hard. Nicolas Mejia is the paper favourite — ranked #115, a roughly 30-point hard Elo advantage — but Murphy Cassone arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 8 on hard to Nicolas Mejia's 3 of 8. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1
11

Evidence

Mejia N.Cassone M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–66–4 (ahead)
Season win rate59% (36–25) (ahead)48% (21–23)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1803 (ahead)1710
Hard-court ELO16291652 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 55 vs 40 matches
1st-serve points won70%73% (ahead)
Return points won38% (ahead)36%
Aces / match5.05.9 (ahead)
ClutchLast 55 vs 40 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)60%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast15°C · Overcast
Wind6 km/h
Humidity53%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Mejia N.Cassone M.
10 — fresherDays since last match5
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days1
0 — fresherGames · 7 days22
2Matches · 14 days2
54Games · 14 days45 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Nicolas Mejia vs Murphy Cassone — Charlottesville Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/cassone-vs-mejia-charlottesville-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).