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Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Lorenzo Giustino — Taranto Round of 32

TarantoR32HardMon 2 Nov · 10:00
Carlo Alberto CaniatoATP #302 · ITA69%
VSClear favourite · Caniato C.
Lorenzo Giustino(8)ATP #229 · ITA31%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Caniato C.
69%31%

Clear edge for Caniato C. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Caniato C.5.0/10
Heavy underdog
Giustino L.6.3/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+197 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Giustino L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1420Against the prediction · Giustino L.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 681
Hard ELO1 516
Last 106–4
Age21
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $103K2026 $21K
ELO1 695
Hard ELO1 563
Last 105–5
Age35
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.2M2026 $143K

Carlo Alberto Caniato faces Lorenzo Giustino in the Taranto round of 32 on hard. Lorenzo Giustino holds the paper edge — ranked #229, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Caniato C.Giustino L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate58% (28–20) (ahead)47% (28–31)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16811695 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15161563 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 46 vs 57 matches
1st-serve points won74% (ahead)69%
Return points won38%38%
Aces / match4.6 (ahead)3.9
ClutchLast 46 vs 57 matches
Break points saved63% (ahead)58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast17°C · Showers
Wind24 km/h
Humidity81%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Caniato C.Giustino L.
11Days since last match12 — fresher
0Matches · 7 days0
0Games · 7 days0
2Matches · 14 days1 — fresher
47Games · 14 days29 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Lorenzo Giustino — Taranto Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/caniato-vs-giustino-taranto-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).