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Jay Clarke vs Federico Bondioli — Taranto Round of 32

TarantoR32HardMon 2 Nov · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
56%44%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Clarke J.6.1/10
Even match
Bondioli F.4.9/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+174 Hard Elo edgeSupports Clarke J.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1458Supports Clarke J.
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 700
Hard ELO1 608
Last 105–5
Age28
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.3M2026 $143K
ELO1 663
Hard ELO1 532
Last 105–5
Age21
Height185 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $183K2026 $58K

Jay Clarke faces Federico Bondioli in the Taranto round of 32 on hard. Jay Clarke holds the paper edge — ranked #239, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 170-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

  • Head-to-head: Jay Clarke leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 3 2025.
  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Clarke J. leads 1–0
10

Evidence

Clarke J.Bondioli F.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–55–5
Season win rate47% (26–29)51% (18–17) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1700 (ahead)1663
Hard-court ELO1608 (ahead)1532
Serve vs returnLast 52 vs 35 matches
1st-serve points won68% (ahead)66%
Return points won40% (ahead)39%
Aces / match3.33.4 (ahead)
ClutchLast 52 vs 35 matches
Break points saved62% (ahead)57%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast17°C · Showers
Wind24 km/h
Humidity81%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Clarke J.Bondioli F.
12 — fresherDays since last match10
0Matches · 7 days0
0Games · 7 days0
1 — fresherMatches · 14 days2
30 — fresherGames · 14 days40
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Jay Clarke vs Federico Bondioli — Taranto Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/bondioli-vs-clarke-taranto-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).