UMPIRY
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Daniel Milavsky vs Joshua Charlton — Charlottesville Qualifying Round of 32

CharlottesvilleQ32QualifyingHardSun 1 Nov · 11:30
Daniel MilavskyATP #312 · USA75%
VSClear favourite · Milavsky D.
Joshua CharltonATP #832 · AUS25%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Milavsky D.
75%25%

Clear edge for Milavsky D. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Milavsky D.5.7/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Charlton J.5.2/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form3 of last 10 on hardSupports Milavsky D.
Recent runLost last 3Informative
CountryWon 62% in USA (68)Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 656
Hard ELO1 614
Last 103–7
Age25
EarningsCareer $101K2026 $43K
ELO1 527
Hard ELO1 515
Last 103–7
Age27
EarningsCareer $67K2026 $8K

Daniel Milavsky faces Joshua Charlton in the Charlottesville qualifying round of 32 on hard. Daniel Milavsky holds the paper edge — ranked #312. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
  • Surface form: Both 3 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Milavsky D.Charlton J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–73–7
Season win rate58% (25–18) (ahead)33% (11–22)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1656 (ahead)1527
Hard-court ELO1614 (ahead)1515
Serve vs returnLast 43 vs 22 matches
1st-serve points won71% (ahead)70%
Return points won38% (ahead)33%
Aces / match6.26.5 (ahead)
ClutchLast 43 vs 22 matches
Break points saved67%73% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast17°C · Overcast
Wind1 km/h
Humidity48%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Daniel Milavsky vs Joshua Charlton — Charlottesville Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-01/charlton-vs-milavsky-charlottesville-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 1 November 2026).