UMPIRY
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Aidan Mayo vs Duncan Chan — Charlottesville Qualifying Round of 32

CharlottesvilleQ32QualifyingHardSun 1 Nov · 17:30
Aidan MayoATP #321 · USA71%
VSClear favourite · Mayo A.
Duncan ChanATP #467 · CAN29%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Mayo A.
71%29%

Clear edge for Mayo A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Mayo A.5.4/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Chan D.5.8/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form7 of last 10 on hardSupports Mayo A.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
CountryWon 46% in USA (121)Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Chan D.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 673
Hard ELO1 629
Last 107–3
Age23
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $256K2026 $48K
ELO1 575
Hard ELO1 556
Last 104–6
Age21
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $94K2026 $34K

Aidan Mayo faces Duncan Chan in the Charlottesville qualifying round of 32 on hard. Aidan Mayo holds the paper edge — ranked #321.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Mayo A.Chan D.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate56% (28–22) (ahead)50% (8–8)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1673 (ahead)1575
Hard-court ELO1629 (ahead)1556
Serve vs returnLast 49 vs 15 matches
1st-serve points won76% (ahead)67%
Return points won38%40% (ahead)
Aces / match7.1 (ahead)3.9
ClutchLast 49 vs 15 matches
Break points saved65% (ahead)56%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

17:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast16°C · Overcast
Wind6 km/h
Humidity42%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Mayo A.Chan D.
1Days since last match7 — fresher
4Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
87Games · 7 days25 — fresher
7Matches · 14 days3 — fresher
175Games · 14 days82 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Aidan Mayo vs Duncan Chan — Charlottesville Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-01/chan-vs-mayo-charlottesville-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 1 November 2026).