Matyas Cerny vs Sebastian Sorger | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

UMPIRY

Bratislava 2Q32QualifyingHardSun 1 Nov · 15:30

Matyas CernyATP #691 · CZE24%

VSClear favourite · Sorger S.

Sebastian SorgerATP #387 · AUT76%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Sorger S.

24%76%

Clear edge for Sorger S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Cerny M.5.9/10

Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Sorger S.5.7/10

Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Recent runLost last 3Informative

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 578

Hard ELO1 484

Last 105–5

Age25

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $41K2026 $11K

ELO1 664

Hard ELO1 547

Last 104–6

Age20

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $79K2026 $28K

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Cerny M.Sorger S.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–54–6

Season win rate48% (16–17)57% (24–18)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15781664

Hard-court ELO14841547

Serve vs returnLast 30 vs 37 matches

1st-serve points won67%63%

Return points won41%43%

Aces / match1.82.0

ClutchLast 30 vs 37 matches

Break points saved55%59%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

15:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast11°C · Rain

Wind17 km/h

Humidity91%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Cerny M.Sorger S.

20Days since last match8

0Matches · 7 days0

0Games · 7 days0

0Matches · 14 days1

0Games · 14 days29

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Matyas Cerny vs Sebastian Sorger — Bratislava 2 Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-01/cerny-vs-sorger-bratislava-2-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 1 November 2026).