Joshua Sheehy vs Justin Boulais | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

UMPIRY

CharlottesvilleQ32QualifyingHardSun 1 Nov · 10:00

Joshua SheehyATP #765 · USA29%

VSClear favourite · Boulais J.

Justin BoulaisATP #428 · CAN71%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Boulais J.

29%71%

Clear edge for Boulais J. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Sheehy J.5.2/10

Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Boulais J.5.5/10

Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form3 of last 10 on hardSupports Boulais J.

Head-to-headTrails 0–1 on hardInformative

CountryWon 56% in USA (64)Supports Boulais J.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Sheehy J.

Recent runLost last 4Both players

ELO1 533

Hard ELO1 521

Last 102–8

Age29

Height188 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $96K2026 $12K

ELO1 605

Hard ELO1 581

Last 103–7

Age25

Height183 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $165K2026 $50K

Joshua Sheehy faces Justin Boulais in the Charlottesville qualifying round of 32 on hard. Justin Boulais holds the paper edge — ranked #428, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Joshua Sheehy 16 games in 14 days, Justin Boulais 31.
Head-to-head: Justin Boulais leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Lexington CH 2023.
Surface form: Joshua Sheehy 2 of 10, Justin Boulais 3 of 10 on hard recently — Justin Boulais the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Boulais J. leads 1–0

Boulais J.July 2023Lexington CHHard6-2 7-5

Evidence

Sheehy J.Boulais J.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss2–83–7

Season win rate34% (10–19)50% (22–22)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15331605

Hard-court ELO15211581

Serve vs returnLast 27 vs 43 matches

1st-serve points won73%69%

Return points won35%40%

Aces / match7.53.9

ClutchLast 27 vs 43 matches

Break points saved66%62%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast15°C · Clear

Wind3 km/h

Humidity61%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Sheehy J.Boulais J.

14Days since last match7

0Matches · 7 days1

0Games · 7 days31

1Matches · 14 days1

16Games · 14 days31

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Joshua Sheehy vs Justin Boulais — Charlottesville Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-01/boulais-vs-sheehy-charlottesville-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 1 November 2026).