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Miguel Tobon vs Enrique Bogo — Costa do Sauipe Qualifying Round of 16

Costa do SauipeQ16QualifyingClaySun 1 Nov · 16:00
Miguel TobonATP #444 · COL80%
VSStrong favourite · Tobon M.
Enrique BogoBRA20%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Tobon M.
80%20%

Clear edge for Tobon M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Tobon M.6.2/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Bogo E.4.7/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form6 of last 10 on claySupports Tobon M.
Recent runLost last 5Informative
Long matches3 three-setters in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 599
Clay ELO1 557
Last 106–4
Age20
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
ELO1 485
Clay ELO1 490
Last 104–6
Age31
Height185 cm
PlaysRight

Miguel Tobon faces Enrique Bogo in the Costa do Sauipe qualifying round of 16 on clay. Miguel Tobon brings the better recent clay form (6 of 10).

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Miguel Tobon carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Miguel Tobon 6 of 10, Enrique Bogo 4 of 10 on clay recently — Miguel Tobon the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Tobon M.Bogo E.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate55% (28–23) (ahead)0% (0–3)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1599 (ahead)1485
Clay-court ELO1557 (ahead)1490
Serve vs returnLast 50 vs 1 matches
1st-serve points won70% (ahead)46%
Return points won39%39%
Aces / match4.5 (ahead)1.0
ClutchLast 50 vs 1 matches
Break points saved59% (ahead)40%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

16:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast28°C · Clear
Wind17 km/h
Humidity74%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Miguel Tobon vs Enrique Bogo — Costa do Sauipe Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-01/bogo-vs-tobon-costa-do-sauipe-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 1 November 2026).