Alice Tubello vs Jazmin Ortenzi | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

UMPIRY

Curitiba Open - CuritibaQuarter-finalClayFri 30 Oct · 11:00

Alice TubelloWTA #207 · FRA67%

VSClear favourite · Tubello A.

Jazmin Ortenzi(8)WTA #173 · ARG33%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Tubello A.

67%33%

Clear edge for Tubello A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Tubello A.6.5/10

Marginal edge

Ortenzi J.6.0/10

Even match

Why

Surface+11 Clay Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Ortenzi J.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1522Against the prediction · Ortenzi J.

Head-to-headLeads 4–0 on claySupports Tubello A.

Recent run2-match win streakBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 714

Clay ELO1 713

Last 108–2

Age25

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $363K2026 $190K

ELO1 690

Clay ELO1 699

Last 106–4

Age24

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $298K2026 $133K

Alice Tubello faces Jazmin Ortenzi in the Curitiba Open - Curitiba quarter-final on clay. Jazmin Ortenzi is the paper favourite — ranked #173 — but Alice Tubello has won all four of their previous meetings. Alice Tubello brings the better recent clay form (5 of 6).

Key context

Last match: Jazmin Ortenzi handed Lourdes Ayala a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–2 win.
Head-to-head: Alice Tubello leads the head-to-head 4–0. Last met at W35 Arequipa 1 2024.
Surface form: Alice Tubello 5 of 6, Jazmin Ortenzi 4 of 6 on clay recently — Alice Tubello the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

4 meetings · Tubello A. leads 4–0

Tubello A.August 2024W35 Arequipa 1Clay7-6(2) 6-3
Tubello A.August 2024W35 Chacabuco 1Clay6-4 6-2
Tubello A.May 2024W35 Sopo 1Clay6-4 6-2
Tubello A.May 2024W35 Anapoima 1Clay6-1 6-2

Evidence

Tubello A.Ortenzi J.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–26–4

Season win rate62% (39–24)56% (20–16)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17141690

Clay-court ELO17131699

Serve vs returnLast 61 vs 36 matches

1st-serve points won60%57%

Return points won48%48%

Aces / match0.90.4

ClutchLast 61 vs 36 matches

Break points saved51%48%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local

SurfaceClay

Forecast22°C · Drizzle

Wind9 km/h

Humidity65%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Tubello A.Ortenzi J.

1Days since last match1

2Matches · 7 days2

35Games · 7 days34

2Matches · 14 days2

35Games · 14 days34

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alice Tubello vs Jazmin Ortenzi — Curitiba Open - Curitiba Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-30/ortenzi-vs-tubello-curitiba-open-curitiba-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 30 October 2026).