Alana Subasic vs Belle Thompson | W35 Sydney Quarter-final

UMPIRY

W35 SydneyQuarter-finalHardFri 30 Oct · 10:00

Alana SubasicWTA #509 · AUS68%

VSClear favourite · Subasic A.

Belle ThompsonWTA #732 · AUS32%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Subasic A.

68%32%

Clear edge for Subasic A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Subasic A.4.7/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Thompson B.4.9/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form1 of last 5 on hardInformative

Recent runLost last 4Informative

Head-to-headLeads 2–1 on hardSupports Subasic A.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 586

Hard ELO1 572

Last 105–5

Age19

EarningsCareer $89K2026 $46K

ELO1 524

Hard ELO1 511

Last 105–5

Age26

EarningsCareer $31K2026 $9K

Alana Subasic faces Belle Thompson in the W35 Sydney quarter-final on hard. Alana Subasic holds the paper edge — ranked #509, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Last match: Belle Thompson dropped the opening set before beating Dayeon Back 4–6 6–3 6–1.
Last match: Alana Subasic advanced when Tahlia Kokkinis retired.
Head-to-head: Alana Subasic leads the head-to-head 2–1. Last met at W15 Brisbane 2026.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

3 meetings · Subasic A. leads 2–1

Thompson B.July 2026W15 BrisbaneHard6-7(2) 6-4 6-7(7)
Subasic A.August 2025W15 Tweed Heads 2Hard6-4 7-5
Subasic A.December 2023W25 PapamoaHard6-3 6-2

Evidence

Subasic A.Thompson B.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–55–5

Season win rate64% (30–17)55% (17–14)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15861524

Hard-court ELO15721511

Serve vs returnLast 38 vs 20 matches

1st-serve points won59%60%

Return points won48%45%

Aces / match0.70.7

ClutchLast 38 vs 20 matches

Break points saved52%51%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast22°C · Partly cloudy

Wind10 km/h

Humidity56%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alana Subasic vs Belle Thompson — W35 Sydney Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-30/subasic-vs-thompson-w35-sydney-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 30 October 2026).