K. Shibano vs Taiyo Yamanaka | M15 Yanagawa City Round of 16

UMPIRY

M15 Yanagawa CityR16HardThu 29 Oct · 10:00

K. ShibanoJPN26%

VSClear favourite · Yamanaka T.

Taiyo Yamanaka(4)ATP #831 · JPN74%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Yamanaka T.

26%74%

Clear edge for Yamanaka T. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Shibano K.4.6/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Yamanaka T.4.7/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Yamanaka T.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 519

Hard ELO1 517

Last 107–3

Age30

ELO1 576

Hard ELO1 559

Last 105–5

Age25

K. Shibano faces Taiyo Yamanaka in the M15 Yanagawa City round of 16 on hard. Taiyo Yamanaka is the paper favourite — leading the head-to-head 1–0 — but K. Shibano arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on hard to Taiyo Yamanaka's 5 of 10.

Key context

Last match: Taiyo Yamanaka dropped just 2 games past Natsuki Yamamoto.
Head-to-head: Taiyo Yamanaka leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M15 Tsukuba 1 2025.
Surface form: K. Shibano 7 of 10, Taiyo Yamanaka 5 of 10 on hard recently — K. Shibano the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Yamanaka T. leads 1–0

Yamanaka T.March 2025M15 Tsukuba 1Hard6-4 6-0

Evidence

Shibano K.Yamanaka T.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–35–5

Season win rate75% (3–1)48% (15–16)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15191576

Hard-court ELO15171559

Serve vs returnLast 2 vs 21 matches

1st-serve points won67%70%

Return points won47%38%

Aces / match0.04.3

ClutchLast 2 vs 21 matches

Break points saved56%55%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast17°C · Mainly clear

Wind3 km/h

Humidity60%

Cite this

Umpiry, "K. Shibano vs Taiyo Yamanaka — M15 Yanagawa City Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/shibano-vs-yamanaka-m15-yanagawa-city-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).