Matt Ponchet vs Martin Krumich | M25 Sheffield Quarter-final

UMPIRY

M25 SheffieldQuarter-finalHardThu 29 Oct · 11:30

Matt PonchetATP #777 · FRA16%

VSStrong favourite · Krumich M.

Martin Krumich(2)ATP #289 · CZE84%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Krumich M.

16%84%

Clear edge for Krumich M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Ponchet M.4.1/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Krumich M.4.6/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form6 of last 10 on hardInformative

Recent runLost last 4Informative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 541

Hard ELO1 521

Last 105–5

Age22

Height196 cm

PlaysLeft

ELO1 729

Hard ELO1 574

Last 106–4

Age23

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

Matt Ponchet faces Martin Krumich in the M25 Sheffield quarter-final on hard. Martin Krumich holds the paper edge — ranked #289.

Key context

Last match: Matt Ponchet advanced when Paul Jubb retired.
Last match: Martin Krumich dropped just 5 games past Leonardo Rossi.
Fatigue load: Matt Ponchet carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Ponchet M.Krumich M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–56–4

Season win rate38% (6–10)58% (41–30)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15411729

Hard-court ELO15211574

Serve vs returnLast 12 vs 69 matches

1st-serve points won69%70%

Return points won35%41%

Aces / match3.94.5

ClutchLast 12 vs 69 matches

Break points saved60%61%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:30 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast14°C · Mainly clear

Wind8 km/h

Humidity76%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Matt Ponchet vs Martin Krumich — M25 Sheffield Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/krumich-vs-ponchet-m25-sheffield-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).