Andrew Johnson vs William Jansen | M25 Las Vegas Round of 16

UMPIRY

M25 Las VegasR16HardThu 29 Oct · 10:30

Andrew Johnson(5)ATP #725 · USA31%

VSClear favourite · Jansen W.

William JansenGBR69%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Jansen W.

31%69%

Clear edge for Jansen W. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Johnson A.4.5/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Jansen W.4.6/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Recent runLost last 2Informative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 527

Hard ELO1 509

Last 105–5

Age17

EarningsCareer $14K2026 $14K

ELO1 568

Hard ELO1 557

Last 106–4

Age21

EarningsCareer $29K2026 $5K

Andrew Johnson faces William Jansen in the M25 Las Vegas round of 16 on hard. William Jansen brings the better recent hard form (3 of 5).

Key context

Last match: Andrew Johnson dropped just 4 games past X. Palomar.
Surface form: Andrew Johnson 2 of 5, William Jansen 3 of 5 on hard recently — William Jansen the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Johnson A.Jansen W.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–56–4

Season win rate50% (5–5)71% (5–2)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15271568

Hard-court ELO15091557

Serve vs returnLast 6 matches each

1st-serve points won58%75%

Return points won44%45%

Aces / match1.34.3

ClutchLast 6 matches each

Break points saved54%55%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:30 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast20°C · Overcast

Wind8 km/h

Humidity33%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Andrew Johnson vs William Jansen — M25 Las Vegas Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/jansen-vs-johnson-m25-las-vegas-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).