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Matias Soto vs Mauricio Schtulmann Gasca — M15 Mazatlan Round of 16

M15 MazatlanR16HardThu 29 Oct · 17:30
Matias Soto(1)ATP #260 · CHI84%
VSStrong favourite · Soto M.
Mauricio Schtulmann GascaMEX16%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Soto M.
84%16%

Clear edge for Soto M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Soto M.5.3/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Schtulmann Gasca M.5.6/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form2 of last 10 on hardInformative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 674
Hard ELO1 534
Last 104–6
Age27
PlaysRight
ELO1 494
Hard ELO1 504
Last 103–5
Age18
PlaysRight

Matias Soto faces Mauricio Schtulmann Gasca in the M15 Mazatlan round of 16 on hard.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Soto M.Schtulmann Gasca M.
FormLast 10 vs 8 matches · 2026
Win–loss4–6 (ahead)3–5
Season win rate57% (28–21) (ahead)33% (2–4)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1674 (ahead)1494
Hard-court ELO1534 (ahead)1504
Serve vs returnLast 45 vs 1 matches
1st-serve points won70% (ahead)54%
Return points won40% (ahead)20%
Aces / match4.3 (ahead)0.0
ClutchLast 45 vs 1 matches
Break points saved60%67% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

17:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast25°C · Showers
Wind8 km/h
Humidity96%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Matias Soto vs Mauricio Schtulmann Gasca — M15 Mazatlan Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/gasca-vs-soto-m15-mazatlan-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).