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Anton Shepp vs Blake Ellis — M25 Tamworth Quarter-final

M25 TamworthQuarter-finalHardFri 30 Oct · 10:00
Anton Shepp(6)ATP #490 · NZL26%
VSClear favourite · Ellis B.
Blake Ellis(4)ATP #451 · AUS74%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Ellis B.
26%74%

Clear edge for Ellis B. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Shepp A.3.9/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Ellis B.4.3/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 10 on hardSupports Ellis B.
Recent runLost last 5Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 577
Hard ELO1 562
Last 106–4
Age24
EarningsCareer $31K2026 $16K
ELO1 684
Hard ELO1 635
Last 106–4
Age27
EarningsCareer $346K2026 $53K

Anton Shepp faces Blake Ellis in the M25 Tamworth quarter-final on hard. Blake Ellis holds the paper edge — ranked #451. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Last match: Blake Ellis edged H. Satara in two tight sets (6–4 7–5).
  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
  • Surface form: Both 6 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Shepp A.Ellis B.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–46–4
Season win rate43% (9–12)55% (23–19) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15771684 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15621635 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 15 vs 38 matches
1st-serve points won70%74% (ahead)
Return points won37% (ahead)35%
Aces / match5.49.7 (ahead)
ClutchLast 15 vs 38 matches
Break points saved51%68% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast21°C · Clear
Wind4 km/h
Humidity48%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Anton Shepp vs Blake Ellis — M25 Tamworth Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-30/ellis-vs-shepp-m25-tamworth-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 30 October 2026).